一类可修系统贮存模型及其可用度的Fiducial推断

杨军;于丹

系统科学与数学 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1) : 48-058.

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中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院期刊网
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系统科学与数学 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1) : 48-058. DOI: 10.12341/jssms09236
论文

一类可修系统贮存模型及其可用度的Fiducial推断

    杨军(1)(2), 于丹(1)
作者信息 +

One Kind of Repairable Model and It's AvailabilityFiducial Inference

    Yang Jun(1)(2), Yu Dan(1)
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文章历史 +

摘要

针对工程实际建立了一种可修系统贮存模型,
并在该模型下,导出了在任意时刻系统可用度函数的解析表达式；将该模型应用到服从
威布尔分布的系统中,基于系统贮存寿命试验的完全样本,利用Fiducial方法给出了
系统可用度的点估计和置信下限,并进行了大量模拟计算,结果表明,该方法在中小
样本的情况下仍可给出较为精确的估计.

Abstract

According to the fact of engineering, one kind of
repairable model is considered, and the availability function at any time is derived
under the model; Then by applying the model to repairable Weibull distributed systems,
based on the complete-samples in life testing, the Fiducial distribution is given
to the availability of Weibull distributed system which includes the point estimation
and the lower confidence limit; Some random simulation results are given in the
end, and they show that accurate inference can be drawn even in the small sample
situation.

关键词

可用度 / 贮存模型 / 条件概率 / 更新过程 / 概率母函数 / Fiducial分布.

Key words

Availability / renewal process / conditional probability / probability generating function / Fiducial distribution.

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杨军 , 于丹 . 一类可修系统贮存模型及其可用度的Fiducial推断. 系统科学与数学, 2006, 26(1): 48-058. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09236
Yang Jun , Yu Dan. One Kind of Repairable Model and It's AvailabilityFiducial Inference. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2006, 26(1): 48-058 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09236
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