基于景气跟踪图的经济景气分析方法

张嘉为;张珣;王珏;欧变玲;汪寿阳

系统科学与数学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 241-250.

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系统科学与数学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2) : 241-250. DOI: 10.12341/jssms09459
论文

基于景气跟踪图的经济景气分析方法

    张嘉为, 张珣, 王珏, 欧变玲, 汪寿阳
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BUSINESS CYCLE TRACER: A NEW APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS

    ZHANG Jiawei, ZHANG Xun, WANG Jue, OU Bianling, WANG Shouyang
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摘要

首次将景气跟踪图方法引入中国经济景气分析中, 并从宏观经济和行业分析两个维度对中国经济景气情况进行了分析.景气跟踪图方法基于时钟分析方法, 对多个重要的经济时间序列指标的发展、运行进行跟踪, 进而分析国民经济运行状态.景气跟踪图方法是一种新的景气分析方法, 目前多用于宏观经济分析, 作者尝试将其引入到行业分析中.针对直接采用原有景气跟踪图可能存在的问题, 作者结合先行指标体系进行景气跟踪图分析, 同时提出了基于景气跟踪图的经济持久期分析方法.
中国经济的实证结果表明改进的景气跟踪图方法在宏观经济与行业分析中均有非常良好的表现, 是现有景气分析方法的很好改进与补充.

Abstract

In this paper, we firstly introduce and use business cycle tracer approach into China's business cycle analysis from the aspects of macroeconomic and industry analysis. Business cycle tracer is a new approach derived from business cycle clock to analysis the economic performance. The state of the business cycle is determined by tracing a selection of key macro-economic indicators. It is a newly approach used mainly in macroeconomic analysis. We introduce it in industry analysis. In order to overcome some problems in the existing business cycle tracer in industry analysis, we improve it through combining with traditional leading indicator. The empirical result shows the effectiveners of the business cycle tracer in both macroeconomic analysis and industry analysis, which is a very nice improvement complement to the existing business cycle analysis tool.

关键词

景气跟踪图 / 经济景气分析 / 经济周期 / 行业分析.

Key words

Business cycle tracer / business cycle analysis / business cycle / industry analysis.

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张嘉为 , 张珣 , 王珏 , 欧变玲 , 汪寿阳. 基于景气跟踪图的经济景气分析方法. 系统科学与数学, 2011, 31(2): 241-250. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09459
ZHANG Jiawei , ZHANG Xun , WANG Jue , OU Bianling , WANG Shouyang. BUSINESS CYCLE TRACER: A NEW APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2011, 31(2): 241-250 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms09459
中图分类号： 62P20    91B82   
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