对供应链网络可靠性进行界定和分析, 以节点企业间的协同为基础, 得到可靠度计算模型, 以此为依据采集实证样本无失效运行的数据. 根据供应链网络可靠性统计特性, 建立一种多层Bayes估计方法, 应用于样本可靠性评估中. 在估计失效率的基础上, 对供应链网络可靠度进行估计, 对仿真结果进行分析, 显示多层Bayes估计方法应用效果较好, 精确度高, 反映了参数不确定性对供应链网络可靠性的影响, 能够较好地解决依据无失效数据判定供应链网络可靠性水平的问题.

The reliability model of supply chain networks is achieved based on the anal- ysis and definition of supply chain networks reliability and the collaboration of the enterprises. Effective operation data of example sample is collected. According to the statistical character- istic of supply chain networks reliability, an hierarchical Bayesian estimation method is given to be used for the evaluation of example sample’s reliability. The reliability degree of supply chain networks is estimated based on the estimation of the sample’s failure rate. The analysis results show that the hierarchical Bayesian estimation method is more effective. It can be used to solve the potential problem caused by reliability level determination of supply chain network via zero-failure data.