为快速准确地满足灾害实时变化下的模糊动态需求,研究基于模糊需求的面向灾害扩散的应急调配网络.应用经典传染病模型分析三类受灾害影响人群数量的变化,
通过刻画灾害扩散过程来预测动态变化的模糊资源需求.在满足需求的前提下,  以广义应急成本(包括时间因素)最小化为目标, 构建了一个包含``供应点-中转点-受灾点"的三层应急资源调配模型,并将其转化成等价的变分不等式.设计算例进行数值求解和仿真分析,  验证了所建模型的有效性,并通过关键参数分析得出结论: 灾害扩散的动态性和资源需求的模糊性对应急调配方案的优化决策有重要影响.

For achieving the quick and accurate response to the fuzzy and dynamic relief demand, the emergency resource allocation network under disaster spreading with fuzzy demand is studied in this paper. We first characterize the disaster spreading process to forecast the time-varying relief demand, by using an epidemic model to analyze the relationships among three groups of affected individuals. Then, a three-tiered emergency resource allocation network model consisting of retrieval depots, transit points and demand points is formulated to satisfy the predicted fuzzy demand with the least relief cost, in particular the time cost. By transforming the built model into equivalent variational inequalities for computational solution, we perform numerical simulation to demonstrate
the effectiveness of our model, and discuss the impact of the important parameters. The analysis results show that the dynamics of disaster spreading and the fuzziness of relief demand have important influence on the optimal solution for emergency resource allocation.