战略决策制定的成败, 直接影响一个组织的中长期发展.文章运用人工智能与管理科学相结合的智能管理方法, 研究与构建战略决策模型.首先, 从平衡计分卡的四个维度入手, 以特殊通用原则为出发点, 初步制定战略决策模型.其次, 利用企业战略图和贝叶斯网络都存在因果关系的特点, 将基于平衡计分卡的战略图转化为贝叶斯网络模型.通过研究贝叶斯网络结构学习 算法, 选取了计算速度快, 精度高的K2算法, 对企业数据进行结构 学习, 剔除一些非关键节点, 实现了优化战略模型的目的.最后, 通过多专家的平衡计分卡指标体系的对比, 证实了文章提出的企业战略决策模型的合理性、准确性、实用性.

The strategy decision is the core of enterprise management. Whether or not the enterprise strategy will work, it would directly impact a short-term, or even a long-term, development of an enterprise. The goal of this paper is to establish a new strategic decision model with Bayesian-based approaches, which combine the Bayesian Network with Balanced Scorecard theory. Firstly, starting from the balanced scorecard four dimensions principle, this study constructs the strategic decision model preliminarily. Secondly, it converts the BSC strategic decision map into a Bayesian Network model according to the cause-result relationships existing in both the strategic decision map and Bayesian network. With the study of the Bayesian network structure learning algorithm, we choose the K2 algorithm to optimize the strategy model by deleting some non-critical nodes. Finally, the paper proves the precision and practicability of the model by comparing the BSC index systems with a plurality of specialists' index in various fields.