自2003年以来,我国用水总量呈逐年增长态势,提前预测用水总量对规划供水等有重要的现实意义.文章首先运用相关分析等方法对我国用水总量的影响因素进行分析,然后利用用水总量及其影响因素的相关数据建立了我国用水总量的多因素预测模型,统计检验显示,模型的拟合精度较高.最后应用建立的预测模型结合专家经验法,在一定的情景假定下,对 2014--2015年我国的用水总量进行了预测.预计我国2014--2015年的用水总量约分别为6220.4亿m${}^3$和6214.2亿m${}^3$.

The total water consumption in China increased year by year since 2003. To forecast total water demand in advance is practically important for water supply planning. The paper first made impacting factors analysis of the total water demand in China. Then established three models for the total water demand forecasting by multiple regression analysis. The fitting precision of the forecasting models is satisfactory. Applied the models and expert experiences, the total water demand in China in 2014 and 2015 in some scenarios was predicted. The results showed that it would be 622.04 billion m${}^3$ and 621.42 billion m${}^3$ in 2014 and 2015 in China respectively.