碳交易市场动力学模型及其应用:以广东省为例
Dynamic Model for the Carbon Trading Market and Its Application: Case Study on Guangdong Province
以广东省碳交所为例构建了我国碳交易市场系统动力学模型,解析了配额分配、碳价格形成等机制机理,分析了试点进程中有偿配额、低碳基金、碳普惠制等碳政策的实施成效.研究结果表明,趋紧的碳政策能够提升配额成交价及成交量,并存在严格的减排效率Pareto优化区间;有偿配额机制可有效激活碳市场活跃度,但设置过高的竞价底价将削弱其减排效率;基于``低碳基金''的减排成本补贴政策及``碳普惠制''均可进一步释放碳市场减排潜力,但不支持采取高强度``商业激励''方式来提高群众参与度.文章研究可为我国碳政策优化及制度创新提供一定的支持.
This paper constructed a system dynamics model of carbon trading market in Guangdong province, analyzed the mechanisms of quota allocation, carbon price formation and so on, studied the implementation effects of carbon polices such as compensated quota, low carbon fund and carbon GSP. The results show that tightened carbon policy would meanwhile increase the quota price and trading volume, but for efficiency has strict Pareto optimal interval; Compensated quota mechanism could effectively activate the carbon market activity, but the bid price set too high would weaken its efficiency; The ``carbon GSP'' and carbon abatement cost of subsidies based on ``low carbon fund'' could be further release the carbon emission reduction potential for carbon market, but not to high strength ``business incentives'' way to improve public participation. This study would be helpful for Chinese carbon policy optimization and system innovation.
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