寻找有效的中国碳排放量预测方法,对于制定环境政策有重要意义.工业生产与环境污染关系密切,但现有研究大多聚焦于经济与环境的关系,对碳排放量预测方法或指标研究有限.文章尝试以工业增加值占国内生产总值的比重作为反映经济活动的代表性指标,通过隐马尔科夫链预测我国碳排放量,并与常用模型或指标的预测效果做了对比分析.分析显示,隐马尔科夫链拟合效果好,工业增加值比重可有效反映我国碳排放趋势,从而为碳排放预测提供了新的解决思路.

It is important to find an effective method to predict carbon emissions. Industrial production is closely related to environmental pollution. Most of the existing studies have focused on the relationship between economy and environment, but there are few methods to predict carbon emissions. Compared with the common prediction models and indexes, the paper attempts to take the share of industrial value added in GDP as the index to show the economic activity and forecast the Chinese carbon emissions by Hidden Markov Chain. The empirical results show that the Hidden Markov Chain fits well and the share of industrial value added can effectively reflect the trend of Chinese carbon emissions.