探究结核病疫情发展趋势是制定结核病防控策略的前提, 而采取不同防 控策略对疫情控制效果不同. 文章根据浙江省结核病流行特点, 构建动力学模型, 并利 用浙江省结核病监测数据和调查数据拟合模型. 应用该模型预测浙江省2009--2050年结核 病流行过程, 发现浙江省总结核发病率呈缓慢下降趋势, 但现行结核病防控策略难以达到消灭结核的全球目标(发病率 $<$ 1/100,000/年). 其次, 文章对比4种防控策略的效果, 即提高治疗成功率, 降低传染率, 治疗潜伏结核感染, 和加强耐药控制. 分析显示, 降低传染率可在短期大幅控制结核病发病率, 而治疗潜伏结核感染的防控措施远期控制效果显著. 评估各防控策略效果可为制定结核病防控策略提供科学依据.

The latest progress in combating tuberculosis (TB) is not significant, and TB remains the top infectious killer worldwide. In this paper, we use a deterministic model to predict TB epidemics and to evaluate TB control measures. By fitting the model to reported TB surveillance and survey data in Zhejiang Province, we predict the incidence of TB in Zhejiang Province, China from 2009 to 2050. Under the current control strategy, the long-term vision of TB elimination in Zhejiang Province cannot be achieved, though the incidence of TB is projected to decrease slowly. We also compare four interventions: Improving treatment success, reducing transmission, treating latent TB infection and enhancing resistance management. Reducing transmission is the most effective intervention in the short term, while treating latent TB cases has the most significant effects in the long term. Reasonable selection of prevention and control strategies is crucial in TB control.