基于出行时间区间数和参考点的择路行为研究
Study on the Route Choice Behaviors Based on Interval Travel Time and Reference Points
考虑交通环境的不确定性并引入出行者的参考依赖和损失规避等心理特征,假设路径的出行时间是某个区间数,且在区间数内的分布规律是均匀分布,针对一个参考点和两个参考点的情形,基于累积前景理论推导综合价值函数和决策权重函数,进而构建最优路径选择模型.算例结果表明,累积前景值表现出明显的参考点依赖特征,当出行时间以区间数表示并考虑两个参考点时,增加最偏好到达时间会使累积前景值呈现出先增加后减少的变化趋势,且最优路径选择结果会发生变化.最后,通过实证调查数据对理论模型结果进行检验,其结果支持算例分析中的最优路径选择结果.
Taking into account the uncertainty of traffic environment, we introduce the travelers' psychological attributes, such as, the reference-dependent preference and loss aversion, and assume that the route travel time is uniformly distributed in a given interval number. For the cases of one reference point and two reference points, we formulate the integrated value function and decision weight function based on the cumulative prospect theory, and then the optimal route choice model. The numerical results show that the cumulative prospect values represent an evident reference-dependent characteristic. When there are two reference points and the travel time is an interval number, the cumulative prospect values will first increase and then reduce with the increase of the preferred arrival time, and the optimal route choice results will also change. Finally, the results of the theoretical model are tested by empirical investigation data, which is consistent with each other.
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