文章对河南省粮食产量预测方法进行研究.针对河南省粮食产量时间序列表现出的时间趋势性、气象变化敏感性、事件影响敏感性的特点,建立了一套综合考虑趋势、气象、事件等因素的河南省粮食产量预测方法.该方法从多个角度建立了不同的预测模型,最终预测结果通过模型平均得到.从2011--2017年的实际预测效果来看,该预测方法的预测精度较高.

The grain output forecasting method for Henan province is studied in this paper. The grain output time series of Henan province shows characteristics of trend, weather sensitivity and event sensitivity. Considering these distinct characteristics, a grain output forecasting method for Henan province is developed, which integrates trend, weather, events and other factors. This method develops several forecasting models from different perspectives. The reported forecast is obtained by model averaging. Empirical study shows that this method performs quite well in Henan's grain output forecasts for period 2011--2017.