房地产市场分化背景下的市场间风险传染研究

董纪昌,苗晋瑜,董志

系统科学与数学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10) : 1701-1709.

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系统科学与数学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10) : 1701-1709. DOI: 10.12341/jssms13711
论文

房地产市场分化背景下的市场间风险传染研究

    董纪昌1,苗晋瑜1,董志2
作者信息 +

Research on the Risk Contagion Between Markets Under the Background of Real Estate Market Differentiation

    DONG Jichang1 ,MIAO Jinyu1 ,DONG Zhi2
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摘要

近10年来, 中国区域间房地产市场分化程度日益加深, 房价差异影响了居民和投资者的决策从而影响了市场间风险传染关系.文章在房地产市场分化背景下, 研究股票市场、信贷市场和房地产市场之间的市场风险传染研究, 构建PVAR模型, 通过房价、住户信贷规模和股指验证了3个市场在不同区域内风险传染作用存在显著的差异, 并从居民和投资者的视角解释造成影响不同的原因.

Abstract

In recent ten years, the differentiation of China's real estate market is gradually increasing, which affects people's decision on loaning and investing. It changes the way of cross-market risk contagion. In this context, the paper proposes a PVAR model to study risk contagion issues between stock market, credit market and real estate market. The empirical results show that cross-market risk contagion varies in different cities. It also explains the reasons from the perspective of residents and investors.

关键词

风险传染 / 市场间 / PVAR.

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董纪昌 , 苗晋瑜 , 董志. 房地产市场分化背景下的市场间风险传染研究. 系统科学与数学, 2019, 39(10): 1701-1709. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms13711
DONG Jichang , MIAO Jinyu , DONG Zhi. Research on the Risk Contagion Between Markets Under the Background of Real Estate Market Differentiation. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2019, 39(10): 1701-1709 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms13711
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