贸易结构与产业结构协同发展是中国实现供给侧结构性改革, 并由贸易大国转向贸易强国的重中之重. 文章对2002年至2016年全国31省市的产业结构与贸易结构进行测算, 并通过灰色关联算法从静态和动态两个维度定量分析区域产业结构和贸易结构的关联匹配程度. 研究结果表明, 中国区域产业结构与贸易结构存在严重错配现象, 且大多数省市的关联匹配程度未反映出与经济发展水平的关联性. 意味着在区域层面, 中国的贸易结构变动内在机理并非由产业结构升级推动, 贸易发展对产业升级的经济效应没有体现. 同时关联度的测算结果还发现, 加工贸易总体对中国区域层面的产业结构升级和经济发展仍然存在积极效用. 文章的研究可以对中国区域层面根据不同省市的差异性制定相应的产业政策和贸易政策提供参考.

The balanced development of industry and trade plays a vital role in the healthy development of a country's economy. This study investigates whether the industrial structure and trade structure at the provincial level in China are misplaced. Empirically, we consider the grey relational algorithm to assess the degree of correlation between industrial structure and trade structure from static and dynamic dimensions. Grey relational analysis shows that the synergistic trend of fluctuations between industrial structure and trade structure is not obvious. Meanwhile, this correlation does not reflect the corresponding level of economic development, implying that at the regional level, the internal mechanism of China's trade structure change is not driven by the upgrading of industrial structure, and the economic effects of trade development on industrial upgrading are not reflected. Our research also suggests that processing trade still has a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading and economic development at the regional level in China. The study of this paper can provide reference for the formulation of industrial and trade policies at the regional level according to the differences of different provinces and cities in China.