
基于Logistic-SVM的文化创意众筹项目违约风险预警研究
Study on Early Warning of Cultural and Creative Crowdfunding Defaults Based on Logistic-SVM
随着经济文化一体化加速发展, 文化创意众筹逐渐引起了人们的广泛关注. 文化创意众筹项目的价值在于知识产权, 其价值属于无形资产难以评估, 存在着很大的不确定性, 与其他众筹项目的风险相比较, 既有共性, 也有其独特性, 因此研究文化创意众筹风险预警非常必要. 文章针对文化创意众筹的运营模式和特征, 从项目基本情况和发起人信息两个维度出发, 对文化创意众筹项目违约风险的相关指标进行了系统性分析, 构建了文化创意众筹违约风险指标体系, 然后, 应用基于二分类Logistic和SVM的Logistic-SVM混合预警模型对文化创意众筹实现风险预警. 论文以摩点网2014--2019年众筹项目为样本, 对预警模型进行了实证检验, 结果表明, 该混合模型具有较高的预警精度, 众筹平台可以利用该模型降低众筹违约风险. 论文研究结论对于文化众筹项目风险管理有直接的借鉴意义, 对其他类型众筹项目风险管理有参考价值.
With the acceleration of economic and cultural integration, cultural and creative crowdfunding has gradually attracted widespread attention. The value of cultural and creative crowdfunding projects lies in intellectual property which is intangible and hard to evaluate. There is a lot of uncertainty with the value. Compared with the risks of other crowdfunding projects, it has both commonality and uniqueness. Therefore, it is necessary to study the early warning of cultural and creative crowdfunding risks. Based on the operating mode and characteristics of cultural and creative crowdfunding, this paper systematically analyzes the relevant indicators of early warning of default risks of cultural and creative crowdfunding projects from the two dimensions of the basic situation of the project and the information of the promoters. And it constructs a risk indicator system of cultural and creative crowdfunding default which applied to realization of risks early warning system by Logistic-SVM hybrid early warning model based on binary classification Logistic and SVM. The paper uses the crowdfunding project of Modi.com from 2014 to 2019 as a sample to conduct an empirical test on the early warning model. The results show that the hybrid model has high early warning accuracy, and the crowdfunding platform can use this model to reduce the risks of crowdfunding default. The research conclusions of this paper have direct reference significance for cultural crowdfunding project risks management and have reference value for other types of crowdfunding project risks management.
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