基于可能度函数的三参数区间灰数预测模型

李晔,李娟

系统科学与数学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12) : 2332-2341.

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PDF(475 KB)
系统科学与数学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12) : 2332-2341. DOI: 10.12341/jssms14059
论文

基于可能度函数的三参数区间灰数预测模型

    李晔,李娟
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Three-Parameter Interval Grey Number Prediction Model Based on Possibility Degree Function

    LI Ye, LI Juan
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摘要

针对现有三参数区间灰数预测模型较少考虑灰数取值可能性大小的问题, 根据``数形结合''的思想将三参数区间灰数的可能度函数映射到二维坐标平面上, 提取其几何特征, 实现三参数区间灰数序列到实数序列的等量信息转化, 建立相应的DGM(1, 1)模型, 推导得到基于可能度函数的三参数区间灰数预测模型. 最后, 应用算例对比分析说明模型的有效性和实用性.

Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the existing three-parameter interval grey number prediction model seldom considers the possibility of grey number value, this paper proposes a three-parameter interval grey number prediction model based on possibility degree function. According to the idea of ``combination of numbers and shapes'', the possibility degree function of three-parameter interval grey number is mapped to the two-dimensional coordinate plane. And then its geometric characteristics is extracted in order to realize equivalent information transformation from three-parameter interval grey number sequence to real number sequence. So the corresponding DGM(1, 1) model is established. An example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

关键词

三参数区间灰数 / 灰色预测 / 可能度函数 / DGM(1 / 1)模型.

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李晔 , 李娟. 基于可能度函数的三参数区间灰数预测模型. 系统科学与数学, 2020, 40(12): 2332-2341. https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms14059
LI Ye , LI Juan. Three-Parameter Interval Grey Number Prediction Model Based on Possibility Degree Function. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2020, 40(12): 2332-2341 https://doi.org/10.12341/jssms14059
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