天然气管网分布、能源政策及资源禀赋等众多因素存在区域差异性,通过结构性视角对天然气需求的区域趋同性及差异性进行研究具有很好的现实价值和理论 价值. 文章充分考虑区域内部天然气供应能力的协同性, 基于我国天然气管道网络分布将天然气市场划分为5大区域. 利用贝叶斯结构方程模型, 定义无法直接观测的天然气需求为潜变量,选择合适的测量指标对我国30个省和5 大区域天然气需求的驱动因素进行分析, 得出以下结论: 煤炭消费对天然气需求的替代效应最为明显; 增加城镇燃气投资能有效提升天然气供应能力; 区域2、3、5表现出天然气需求随可替代能源消费的增加而增加;增加区域4的可替代能源消费对该地区的天然气需求产生明显的抑制效果.

There are regional differences among many factors such as natural gas pipeline network distribution, energy policy and resource endowment. It is of great practical and theoretical value to study the regional convergence and difference of natural gas demand from a structural perspective. This article summarizes the domestic and foreign literature on natural gas demand, the factors that affect natural gas demand mainly relating to natural conditions, economic development level, natural gas supply capacity, and other energy substitutes for natural gas. In this paper, the natural gas market is divided into five regions based on the distribution of natural gas pipeline network in China. Based on the 2001--2016 inter-provincial data in the Wind database, this paper establishes a Bayesian structural equation model and discusses the driving path and mechanism of observable and exogenous latent variables on natural gas demand, in 30 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions, except Tibet) and 5 regions in China: The impact of exogenous latent variables on natural gas demand in each region is in order of economic behavior, supply capacity and alternative energy consumption. The impact of alternative energy consumption on natural gas demand is negative, and the remaining two are positive. Among the observable variables, the substitution effect of coal consumption on natural gas demand is the most obvious, and urban investment contributes the most to the improvement of natural gas supply capacity. Regions 2, 3, and 5 show that natural gas demand increases with the increase of alternative energy consumption. The Inhibitory effect of increasing the consumption of alternative energy sources on the demand for natural gas is greater than the stimulation of the remaining two on the demand for natural gas in the region 4. The research results show that the same factors have different impact paths on natural gas demand in different provinces and regions. It is required that when China aims to develop a low-carbon economy, the overall situation of the natural gas industry should be scientifically and effectively planned in accordance with the actual conditions of different provinces and regions. For a single region, to expand natural gas demand in the context of China's economic slowdown, it should focus on increasing investment in natural gas production and supply, rather than relying solely on management network construction.