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房贷利息抵扣个人所得税政策的价格影响与收入分配效应研究

夏炎1,2,姚晔3,蒋茂荣4,范英5   

  1. 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院, 北京 100190 2. 中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京 100049 3. 罗格斯大学新布朗斯维克分校, 新布朗斯维克 08854 4. 中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所, 北京 100038 5. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京 100190
  • 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-04-19

夏炎, 姚晔, 蒋茂荣, 范英. 房贷利息抵扣个人所得税政策的价格影响与收入分配效应研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2021, 41(2): 325-343.

XIA Yan, YAO Ye, JIANG Maorong, FAN Ying. Price Impact and Income Distribution Effect of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction Policy[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2021, 41(2): 325-343.

Price Impact and Income Distribution Effect of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction Policy

XIA Yan 1,2 ,YAO Ye3 ,JIANG Maorong4 ,FAN Ying 5   

  1. 1. Institues of Science and Development Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 3. Rutgers University-New Brunswick, New Brunswick 08854 4. Energy Research Institute, Chinese Academey of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038 5. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100190
  • Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-04-19

为考察``房贷利息抵扣个人所得税''政策的价格影响以及收入分配效应, 文章在考虑当期居民收入与消费间内生连接机制、居民消费与生产活动间需求拉动、税收变动与企业生产成本间价格关联的 前提下, 创新地构建了反映个人所得税扣除机制的居民消费内生化的投入产出局部闭模型. 利用该模型, 文章从宏观视角对定率扣除标准下, ``房贷利息抵扣个人所得税''的 政策效果进行了模拟评估. 研究发现: 相比其他收入群体, 较低收入到中等偏上收入等级的贷款购房纳税人可以在``房贷利息抵扣个人所得税''政策中获得更大的实惠. 然而, 从宏观视 角考虑到政策可能产生的价格影响后发现, ``房贷利息抵扣个人所得税''政策对于贷款购房者的实际成本节约效应远小于微观结果. 在不同定率扣除标准的政策情景下, 政策所产生的总体收入分配效应会有不同程度的变化, 但单纯的``房贷利息抵扣个人所得税''政 策无法有效地改善收入分配差距. 只有进一步增加政策受惠的人群比重和范围, 该政策才能更好地发挥收入再分配效应. 因此, 建议进一步完善个人所得税抵扣机制、适当扩大专项附加扣除的涵盖范围; 优化专项附加扣除标准、建立浮动或 定率专项附加扣除机制; 加大对低收入阶层的转移支付, 并为其提供多元化的政 策支持组合.

In order to examine the price impact and income distribution effect of the ``home mortgage interest deduction of individual income tax" (hereafter abbreviated as HMID) policy, this paper considers the endogenous connection mechanism between the current residents' income and consumption, the demand pull between residents' consumption and production activities, and the price connection between tax changes and corporate production costs. Under the premise of those consideration, a partially closed input-output model reflecting the endogenous consumption of residents' consumption and individual income tax deduction mechanism was originally constructed. Using this model, this paper conducted a simulation evaluation of the HMID policy under a fixed deduction rate standard from a macro perspective. The study found that, compared with other income groups, taxpayers who purchase home mortgage from lower to upper-middle income level can obtain greater benefits in the HMID policy. However, after considering the possible price impact of the HMID policy from a macro perspective, it is found that the actual cost savings effect of this policy on home buyers with mortgage is much smaller than the results we get from micro perspective. Under the policy scenarios of different fixed deduction rate, the overall income distribution effect generated by the HMID policy will change to varying degrees, but the only executed HMID policy cannot effectively improve the current income distribution gap. Further increasing the proportion and scope of the benefited population can make the HMID policy better use for the income redistribution effect. Therefore, based on the results we got from our policy simulation, this paper make three policy suggestions: First, further improving the individual income tax deduction mechanism, appropriately expanding the scope of special expense deductions; second, optimizing the special expenses deduction standards, establishing the floating or fixed rate deduction standards; third, increasing the government transfer payments and providing diversified policy support portfolio to low-income groups.

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