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滑坡灾害临时避难所区位布局规划方法

郭海湘1,2,3,赵佳佳1,黎金玲4   

  1. 1.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074 2.中国地质 大学(武汉)中国矿产资源战略与政策研究中心,武汉 430074 3.西安财经大 学管理学院, 西安 710100  4.湖北第二师范学院管理学院, 武汉 430205
  • 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-04-19

郭海湘, 赵佳佳, 黎金玲. 滑坡灾害临时避难所区位布局规划方法[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2021, 41(2): 401-419.

GUO Haixiang, ZHAO Jiajia, LI Jinling. Research on Location Layout Planning of Temporary Shelter in Landslide Disaster[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2021, 41(2): 401-419.

Research on Location Layout Planning of Temporary Shelter in Landslide Disaster

GUO Haixiang 1,2,3 ,ZHAO Jiajia1, LI Jinling4   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074 2. Research Center for China Mineral Resources Strategy and Policy, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074 3. School of Management, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics, Xi’an 710100 4. School of Management, Hubei University of Education, Wuhan 430205
  • Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-04-19

灾害发生前将危险区域居民快速有序地疏散到临时避难所能在很大程度上减少人员的生命财产损失.为建立一套科学的临时避难所区位布局规划方案,文章以最小化避难所数量、最小化人员分配离散度、最小化总疏散距离为目标建立多目标选址模型,采用NSGA-II 算法对模型进行求解得到帕累托解集,通过随机多准则可接受性分析从帕累托解集中选取布局效果最为合理的方案.以滑坡灾害严重的三峡库区秭归县内不同危险等级、不同体积的4 个滑坡点为研究对象逐个计算验证研究方法,对其研究结果中的目标偏好进行对比,结果证明该方案具有一定的科学性和有效性.研究为临时避难所的选址布局提供了可行性建议,为灾后人员疏散方案提供了依据.

The rapid and orderly evacuation of residents in dangerous areas to temporary shelters before disasters can greatly reduce the loss of life and property. In order to establish a set of scientific temporary shelter location planning scheme, this paper combines the actual situation of landslide disaster in mountainous area to establish temporary shelter. Based on the site selection principles of safety, tolerance and accessibility, a multi-objective planning model based on the site selection layout of landslide disaster shelters is established, taking into account the goals of minimizing the number of shelters, minimizing the dispersion of personnel allocation and minimizing the total evacuation distance under the complete coverage of the disaster site. NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the multi-objective location selection model to obtain the Pareto optimal solution set. The acceptability analysis of random multi-criteria is used to select the most reasonable scheme from multiple schemes to make the proportion of three targets the most balanced. Taking Zigui County in the Three Gorges Reservoir area with serious landslide hazards as an example, the landslide points with different risk levels and different volumes are selected for study, and the target preferences of the final results are compared to verify the effectiveness of the method.The study shows that in general, the number of shelters is given priority in the selection of temporary shelters, the distance between shelters and the disaster site is the second consideration, and the dispersion level of the shelter accommodation rate is the last consideration. The method of ``Multi-objective site selection and layout model-NSGA-II algorithm-SMAA2" adopted by the research institute provides a set of scientific and complete, targeted and operable site selection and layout scheme for emergency service facilities in disaster-prone areas.

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