基于1992--2016年省际面板数据实证研究了中国区域经济短期波动对长期增长的非线性影响, 进一步分析了金融杠杆的作用可能对两者关系的影响. 研究结果表明,经济短期波动对长期影响呈现倒U型的非线性关系,金融杠杆对两者关系具有调节作用. 实证显示这一关系在我国不同地区之间不存在显著区别, 但东部地区可以接纳更高短期波动幅度实现对经济增长的正向效应; 在不同期间两者关系存在显著差异, 随着中国经济进入新常态阶段, 需要约束短期波动剧烈程度以保障经济长期增长. 从金融杠杆的作用看,高杠杆状态下, 经济短期波动对长期增长的非线性影响阈值较低;低杠杆状态下, 可适当放宽经济短期波动幅度以维持经济长期增长.

Based on the provincial-level panel data from 1992 to 2016, this paper conducts the empirical study about the nonlinear impact of the short-term fluctuation on the long-term growth of China's regional economy, and also analyzes the influence of the role of financial leverage on the relationship between these two. The results show that the impact of short-term fluctuation on the long-term growth shows an inverse U-type nonlinear relationship, in which the financial leverage exerts moderating effects. Besides, there is no significant difference of this relationship among different regions in China, but the eastern region can accept the higher short-term volatility to achieve the positive effect on economic growth. There are significant differences of the relationship among different periods, which means that it is necessary to constrain short-term fluctuation to ensure the long-term economic growth as China's economy has entered a new-normal phase. From the perspective of the role of financial leverage, the threshold of nonlinear impact of the short-term fluctuation on the long-term growth is relatively low under the higher leverage. When in lower leverage, appropriate relaxation of economic short-term volatility can be allowed to maintain long-term economic growth.