Estimating the Size of an Open Population with Massive Datasets Based on a Generalized Varying-Coefficient Model

doi:10.1007/s11424-021-0224-z

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity ›› 2022, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 1116-1136.DOI: 10.1007/s11424-021-0224-z

Estimating the Size of an Open Population with Massive Datasets Based on a Generalized Varying-Coefficient Model

LI Haoqi^1,2, LI Yuan¹

1. School of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China; 2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Yangtze Normal University, Chongqing 408100, China

Received:2020-09-17 Revised:2021-01-07 Published:2022-06-20
Supported by:
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 62073096, the Science Center Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 62188101 and the Heilongjiang Touyan Team Program.

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LI Haoqi, LI Yuan. Estimating the Size of an Open Population with Massive Datasets Based on a Generalized Varying-Coefficient Model[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 2022, 35(3): 1116-1136.

A generalized varying-coefficient model is proposed to estimate a population size at a specific time from multiple lists of an open population. The research datasets have millions of records with a very long time span (38 years), bringing challenges to calculations. The authors develop a regularization iterative algorithm to overcome this difficulty. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators is derived. Simulation studies show that the procedure works well. The method is applied to estimate the number of drug abusers in Hong Kong, China over the period 1977-2014.

Key words: Drug abusers, generalized varying-coefficient, multiple-list, open population

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