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中国世界农业区域市场均衡模型及其应用

陆文聪,祈慧博,李元龙   

  1. 浙江大学中国农村发展研究院, 杭州 310058
  • 收稿日期:2012-08-28 出版日期:2013-01-25 发布日期:2013-07-02

陆文聪,祈慧博,李元龙. 中国世界农业区域市场均衡模型及其应用[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2013, 33(1): 20-35.

LU Wencong, QI Huibo, LI Yuanlong. CHINESE WORLD AGRICULTURAL REGIONAL MARKET EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2013, 33(1): 20-35.

CHINESE WORLD AGRICULTURAL REGIONAL MARKET EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

LU Wencong, QI Huibo, LI Yuanlong   

  1. China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou  310058
  • Received:2012-08-28 Online:2013-01-25 Published:2013-07-02
立的``中国世界农业区域市场均衡模型''(简称``CWARMEM模型'')是一个以研究中国农产品市场为重点,包含18种(类)主要农产品和将世界划分整合23个国家,地区及中国31个省区的多市场,多区域全球农业政策分析模型,为研究全球化背景下中国和世界农产品市场供求变化提供一种量化分析工具.在介绍CWARMEM模型结构,
计算等式系统和数据来源的基础上,利用CWARMEM模型,通过3种不同情景的模拟分析,预测2020年全球,中国及各省区小麦,稻谷和玉米3种主要粮食的供求变化.
Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWAR\\MEM) built in this paper is a multi-market and region global agricultural policy analysis model, which focuses on China' s agricultural market with 18 kinds of major agricultural products, divides and integrates 31 provinces in China as well as 23 countries and regions of the world. It provides quantitative techniques for the research on the supply and demand of Chinese and world agricultural products under globalization. Based on introducing the logical structure, equation system, and data sources of CWARMEM, the simulation  analysis is given under three different scenarios, and  the supply and demand changes are forecasted for three main food-wheat, rice, and corn of the world, China and each province.

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