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技术进步视角下经济政策不确定性对经济增长的影响研究

朱松平1,2, 叶阿忠2,3   

  1. 1. 三明学院经济与管理学院, 三明 365004;
    2. 福州大学经济与管理学院, 福州 350108;
    3. 福建省社科研究基地福州大学福建经济高质量发展研究中心, 福州 350108
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-14 修回日期:2021-07-08 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-03-21
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71571046),国家自然科学基金(72073030)资助课题.

朱松平, 叶阿忠. 技术进步视角下经济政策不确定性对经济增长的影响研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(2): 398-416.

ZHU Songping, YE Azhong. The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Technological Progress[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(2): 398-416.

The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Technological Progress

ZHU Songping1,2, YE Azhong2,3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Sanming University, Sanming 365004;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108;
    3. Fujian Economic High Quality Development Research Center, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108
  • Received:2019-10-14 Revised:2021-07-08 Online:2022-02-25 Published:2022-03-21
文章首次将经济政策不确定性、技术进步和经济增长纳入统一分析框架,在技术进步视角下分析了经济政策不确定性对经济增长的非线性影响.通过利用非线性格兰杰因果检验方法识别出中国经济政策不确定性,技术进步和经济增长之间存在的非线性信息,进一步运用半参数全局向量自回归模型进行实证研究.结果表明:1)经济政策不确定性对技术进步和经济增长存在非线性影响,且大致以经济政策不确定性指数300为界;2)经济政策不确定性对东中西三大区域技术进步存在异质性的非线性影响,东部和中部地区在经济政策不确定性低于300时,其对技术进步存在随经济政策不确定性增大而减小的正向偏效应,而西部地区经济政策不确定性对技术进步存在随经济政策不确定性增大而不断增大的负向偏效应.3)经济政策不确定性对经济增长的非线性影响也存在空间区域上的差异.在经济政策不确定性指数低于300时,其对东中西三大区域经济增长的促进或抑制作用均不明显,但随着经济政策不确定性的增大,其对经济增长表现出较强的抑制效应,且这种偏效应随经济政策不确定性的增大而增大,其中,对东部地区经济增长的抑制效应强于中部和西部地区.4)技术进步和经济增长相互促进,技术进步具有正向空间传导效应,发达地区技术进步空间溢出效应较大.
This paper brings economic policy uncertainty, technological progress and economic growth into unified analysis framework, and analyzes the non-linear impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth from the perspective of technological progress. By using the non-linear Granger causality test method to identify the non-linear information among China's economic policy uncertainty, technological progress and economic growth, this paper constructs a semi parametric global vector autoregressive model for empirical research. The results show that:1) Economic policy uncertainty has non-linear impact on technological progress and economic growth, and it is roughly bounded by economic policy uncertainty index 300; 2) Economic policy uncertainty has non-linear impact on heterogeneity of technological progress in the three regions of China. When the economic policy uncertainty index in eastern and central regions are less than 300, there is a positive bias effect on technological progress which decreases with the increase of economic policy uncertainty. However, economic policy uncertainty in the western region has a negative bias effect on technological progress, which increases with the uncertainties of economic policies. 3) There are also spatial and regional differences in the non-linear impact of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth. When economic policy uncertainty index is less than 300, its effect on the three major regional economic growth is not obvious. However, with the increase of economic policy uncertainty, it has a strong restraining effect on economic growth, and this bias effect increases with economic policy uncertainty. Among them, the restraining effect of economic policy uncertainty on economic growth in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions. 4) Technological progress and economic growth promote each other, and technological progress has a positive spatial transmission effect. The spatial spillover effect of technological progress in developed areas is larger.

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