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### 基于分层贝叶斯时空Poisson模型的流行病建模研究

1. 1. 兰州财经大学统计学院, 兰州 730020;
2. 中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心, 北京 100872;
3. 中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872
• 收稿日期:2020-09-17 修回日期:2021-08-19 出版日期:2022-02-25 发布日期:2022-03-21
• 通讯作者: 田茂再,Email:mztian@ruc.edu.cn.
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（11861042），全国统计科学研究项目重点项目（2020LZ25）资助课题.

LIANG Yongyu, TIAN Maozai. Epidemic Modeling Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Possion Model[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(2): 462-472.

### Epidemic Modeling Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Possion Model

LIANG Yongyu1, TIAN Maozai2,3

1. 1. School of Statistics, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020;
2. Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872;
3. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872
• Received:2020-09-17 Revised:2021-08-19 Online:2022-02-25 Published:2022-03-21

The widespread spread of the epidemic has had a huge impact on economic development and daily life. Therefore, it is of great importance for formulating corresponding control strategies and economic recovery policies to collect epidemic data and analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of incidence rate or the intensity of infection. In this paper, epidemic modeling methods based on hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal Poisson model are discussed, including different settings of data model, process model and parameter model, discussion of parameter prior distribution, model selection and so on. Based on this idea, we can analyze the spread and development of epidemics, study the spatial differences of different regions and the influence of other covariables on epidemic trends, and study the spatio-temporal dependence of virus transmission and the heteroscedasticity structure of spatial effects.The modeling method discussed in this paper can provide theoretical reference for the study of related problems. For parameter estimation, the Gibbs sampling algorithm under the default Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC) in WinBUGS and OpenBUGS can be used.

MR(2010)主题分类:

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