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疫苗冷链系统故障风险的概率安全分析

谢小良1,2, 成佳祺1,2, 褚琦1,2, 卫国3   

  1. 1. 湖南工商大学理学院, 长沙 410205;
    2. 统计学习与智能计算湖南省重点实验室, 长沙 410205;
    3. 北卡罗来纳州立大学数学与计算机科学系, 美国北卡罗来纳州 NC 28372
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-18 修回日期:2021-12-31 发布日期:2022-08-31
  • 通讯作者: 成佳祺,Email:chengjq79@163.com.
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金(19BTJ011),湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(20A127)资助课题.

谢小良, 成佳祺, 褚琦, 卫国. 疫苗冷链系统故障风险的概率安全分析[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(7): 1851-1865.

XIE Xiaoliang, CHENG Jiaqi, CHU Qi, WEI Guo. Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Vaccine Cold Chain System Failure Risk[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(7): 1851-1865.

Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Vaccine Cold Chain System Failure Risk

XIE Xiaoliang1,2, CHENG Jiaqi1,2, CHU Qi1,2, WEI Guo3   

  1. 1. Faculty of Science, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205;
    2. School of Big Data and Internet Innovation, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205;
    3. Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Pembroke, Pembroke NC 28372
  • Received:2021-01-18 Revised:2021-12-31 Published:2022-08-31
准确判断疫苗冷链系统的故障风险对于有效监控疫苗的安全性和有效性至关重要,从而为疫苗流通提供保障.文章旨在查明导致疫苗冷链系统失效风险的主要风险因素,并探讨消除或降低这些风险因素的对策.采用将三角模糊数与概率安全分析相结合形成的系统分析方法.首先,通过对事件树和事故树进行概率安全分析,构建疫苗冷链系统故障风险评估模型,然后利用专家综合评价结果和三角模糊数对故障概率进行评分,进一步通过重要度分析得到系统风险的定量诊断分数.通过这些量化分析,确定系统故障的发生主要有制冷设备故障风险、运输设备故障风险和冷链装载风险三大风险.最后,文章总结出降低这3类风险的有效策略包括冷藏和保温设备的定期检查和维护、运输设备的定期检查和保护以及运输疫苗的有效和安全包装.
Accurate judgment of the failure risk of vaccine cold chain systems is crucial for effectively monitoring the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, thus providing safeguards for vaccine circulation. This paper aims to pinpoint major risk factors that cause failure risk of vaccine cold chain systems and explore countermeasures for eliminating or reducing these risk factors. The systematic analysis method, formed by incorporating the triangular fuzzy numbers and probability safety analysis, is employed. First, by conducting the probabilistic safety analysis of event trees and accident trees, the fault risk assessment model of vaccine cold chain systems is constructed, and then the expert comprehensive evaluation results and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to score the probability of failure. Further, quantitative diagnosis scores of the system risk are obtained by performing importance analysis. Through these quantization analyses, it is determined that the system fault occurs due to three major risks, refrigeration equipment failure risk, transport equipment failure risk and cold chain loading risk. Finally, the paper concludes that effective strategies for reducing these three types of risks include periodical inspection and maintenance of refrigeration and insulation equipment, regular inspection and protection of transportation equipment and effective and safe packaging of transported vaccines.

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