上海市作为我国的金融中心, 其商业发展始终走在全国最前列, 研究 其商业地产市场与经济发展之间的关系具有十分重要的意义. 文章在分析其发展现 状后, 通过灰色关联度分析法筛选了系统变量, 将居民可支配收入、社会消费 品零售总额、城市人口、开发商利润额、土地成交面积等与商业地产市场、城市 经济发展相关度较高的指标纳入到SD模型中进行仿真模拟. 研究发现: 商业地产市 场与城市经济发展间存在明显的相互促进作用; 上海市商业地产市场供需端波动 性较大, 整体表现为供过于求; 供需结构随时间而逐渐改变, 供需端最终会趋于相对稳定.

As China's financial center, Shanghai has always been leading in the commercial development nationwide. It is of great significance to study the relationship between its commercial real estate market and economic development. In this paper, after analyzing its development status, the system variables were screened through the grey relational analysis method, and the indicators with high correlation with the commercial real estate market and urban economic development, such as residents' disposable income, total retail sales of social consumer goods, urban population, real estate developers' profits, land transaction area, etc., were included into the SD model for simulation. This study found that there is an obvious mutual promotion between the commercial real estate market and urban economic development; The supply and demand of Shanghai commercial real estate market fluctuates greatly, and the overall performance is oversupply; The structure of supply and demand changes gradually over time, and the supply and demand side will eventually tend to be relatively stable.