• • 上一篇    

基于四系统估计量的人口普查净覆盖误差估计

胡桂华, 迟璐婕   

  1. 重庆工商大学数学与统计学院, 经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室, 重庆 400067
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-18 修回日期:2022-03-29 发布日期:2022-08-31
  • 基金资助:
    2021年国家社科基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文一般项目(21FTJB002)资助课题.

胡桂华, 迟璐婕. 基于四系统估计量的人口普查净覆盖误差估计[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(7): 1910-1928.

HU Guihua, CHI Lujie. Net Census Coverage Error Estimation Based on Four System Estimator[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(7): 1910-1928.

Net Census Coverage Error Estimation Based on Four System Estimator

HU Guihua, CHI Lujie   

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Economic and Social Applied Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067
  • Received:2022-01-18 Revised:2022-03-29 Published:2022-08-31
针对当今人口普查净覆盖误差估计领域所使用的双系统估计量内含交互作用偏差和尚未投入使用的三系统估计量未有效使用人口行政记录的问题,以四系统估计量为研究目标.为实现目标,采取文献解读法、抽样估计法和现场调查法,研究4次捕获模型、全面登记的四系统估计量和抽样登记的四系统估计量.研究表明:四系统估计量须在等概率人口层建立及使用,否则产生异质性偏差;构造四系统估计量应该分两步进行,首先构造全面登记的四系统估计量,然后使用双重扩张估计量构造全面登记的四系统估计量的子总体指标的估计量,以得到抽样登记的四系统估计量;分层刀切抽样方差估计量适合于近似计算抽样登记的四系统估计量及净覆盖误差的抽样方差.研究价值在于,四系统估计量有望应用于政府统计部门未来的净覆盖误差估计.
Aiming at the problems that the dual-system estimator used in the field of census net coverage error estimation contains interaction bias and the triple-system estimator that has not been put into use does not use population administrative records effectively, the research objective is the four-system estimator. In order to achieve the goal, the literature interpretation method, sampling estimation method, and field survey method are adopted to study the four-capture model, the four-system estimator with complete enumerations and the four-system estimator with sample enumerations. Research shows that the four-system estimator must be established and used in the equal probability population strata, otherwise heterogeneity bias will occur; Constructing the four-system estimator should be done in two steps, first constructing the four-system estimator with complete enumerations, and then using the doubleexpansion estimator to construct the estimator for the sub-population indicators of the four-system estimator with complete enumerations to obtain the four-system estimator with sample enumerations; The stratified jack-knife sampling variance estimator is suitable for calculating the sampling variance of the four-system estimator and net census coverage error approximately. The research value is that the four-system estimator is expected to be applied to the government statistics department's future net coverage error estimation.

MR(2010)主题分类: 

()
[1] 胡桂华,武洁,丁杨.人口普查质量评估中Logistic回归模型的应用.数量经济技术经济研究, 2015, 32(4):106-122.(Hu G H, Wu J, Ding Y.Application of logistic regression model in census quality evaluation.Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2015, 32(4):106-122.)
[2] 胡桂华,余鲁,丁杨.人口普查净误差估计中的双系统估计量研究.数量经济技术经济研究, 2016, 33(8):145-161.(Hu G H, Yu L, Ding Y.Research on the dual system estimator in the net error estimation of the census.Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2016, 33(8):145-161.)
[3] Zhang L C.A note on dual system population size estimation.Journal of Official Statistics, 2019, 35(1):279-283.
[4] 胡桂华,漆莉,迟璐婕.双系统估计量与人口普查内容误差评估.统计与信息论坛, 2021, 36(8):3-14.(Hu G H, Qi L, Chi L J.Dual-System estimator and census content error evaluation.Journal of Statistics and Information, 2021, 36(8):3-14.)
[5] 胡桂华,段小梅,杜艾卿,等.交互作用偏差对双系统估计量的影响.数理统计与管理, 2017, 36(4):661-671.(Hu G H, Duan X M, Du A Q, et al.The effect of correlation bias on dual system estimator.Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2017, 36(4):661-671.)
[6] 孟杰.双系统估计量的交互作用偏差研究.数理统计与管理, 2019, 38(5):858-872.(Meng J.Research on correlation bias for dual system estimator.Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2019, 38(5):858-872.)
[7] 胡桂华, Robert McCaa, Lara Cleveland.人口普查净误差估计中的三系统估计量研究.统计研究, 2017, 34(6):3-15.(Hu G H, Robert M, Lara C.Research on triple system estimator for census net error estimation.Statistical Research, 2017, 34(6):3-15.)
[8] 孟杰,沈文静.人口名录库及其在人口普查中的应用.统计与信息论坛.2018, 33(10):90-97.(Meng J, Shen W J.Population register-based and its application in census.Journal of Statistics and Information, 2018, 33(10):90-97.)
[9] 胡桂华,吴婷,范署姗.人口普查质量评估中的三系统估计量研究.数量经济技术经济研究, 2020, 37(8):159-175.((Hu G H, Wu T, Fan S S.Triple system estimator for census quality evaluation.Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2020, 37(8):159-175.)
[10] 孟杰,杨贵军,冯国雷,等.人口总数估计:基于三系统估计量与比率估计量的组合方法.系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(1):35-49.(Meng J, Yang G J, Feng G L, et al.Estimation of total population:A combined method based on triple system estimator and ratio estimator.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(1):35-49.)
[11] Ball P, Betts W, Scheuren F, et al.Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo March-June 1999.New York:American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2002.
[12] Bruno G B, Biggeri A, LaPorte R E, et al.Application of capture-recapture to count diabetes.Diabetes Care, 1994, 17(6):548-556.
[13] 胡桂华.人口普查质量评估中抽样后分层变量的选择.数理统计与管理, 2015, 34(2):245-263.(Hu G H.stratification variables selection after sampling for census quality assessment.Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2015, 34(2):245-263.)
[14] 杨贵军,杜飞,孙玲莉.基于少数类过采样的倾向得分匹配插补法.统计信息与论坛, 2021, 36(1):3-12.(Yang G J, Du F, Sun L L.Propensity score matching imputation based on synthetic minority over-sampling technique.Journal of Statistics and Information, 2021, 36(1):3-12.)
[15] 杨贵军,孙玲莉,李璐.响应倾向得分匹配插补法.统计信息与论坛, 2018, 33(8):3-11.(Yang G J, Sun L L, Li L.Response propensity score matching imputation.Journal of Statistics and Information, 2018, 33(8):3-11.)
[16] 胡桂华,吴东晟.人口普查质量评估调查的抽样设计.数量经济技术经济研究, 2014, 31(4):113-129.(Hu G H, Wu D S.The sampling design of the post-enumeration survey.Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2014, 31(4):113-129.)
[17] 金勇进.抽样:理论与应用.北京:高等教育出版社2010.(Jin Y J.Sampling:Theory and Application.Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2010.)
[18] 冯士雍,倪加勋,邹国华.抽样调査理论与方法.北京:中国统计出版社, 2012.(Feng S Y, Ni J X, Zou G H.Sample Survey Theory and Method.Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2012.)
[19] 胡桂华,范署姗,吴婷.基于设计效应的人口普查质量评估调查样本量测算.统计与信息论坛, 2020, 35(10):12-21.(Hu G H, Fan S S, Wu T.Sample size calculation of census quality assessment survey on the basis of design effect.Journal of Statistics and Information, 2020, 35(10):12-21.)
[20] Jiao J, Venkat K, Han Y, et al.Maximum likelihood estimation of functionals of discrete distributions.IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2017, 63(10):6774-6798.
[21] Ghufran S, Khowaja S, Ahsan M J.Optimum multivariate stratified double sampling design:Chebyshev goal programming approach.Journal of Applied Statistics, 2015, 42(5):1032-1042.
[22] 刘礼,邹国华.缺失数据下Jackknife方差估计量的渐近设计无偏性.系统科学与数学, 2006, 26(4):491-503.(Liu L, Zou G H.Asymptotically unbiased design of Jackknife variance estimators with missing data.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2006, 26(4):491-503.)
[23] Jiao J.Bias correction with Jackknife, Bootstrap, and Taylor series.IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2020,(7):4392-4418.
[24] 孟杰,沈文静,杨贵军,等.复杂抽样的Bootstrap方差估计方法及应用.数理统计与管理, 2021, 40(2):266-278.(Meng J, Shen W J, Yang G J, et al.Bootstrap variance estimation method and application for complex sampling.Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, 2021, 40(2):266-278.)
[25] 邹国华,冯士雍.广义比估计与广义差估计及其优良性.系统科学与数学, 1998, 18(3):359-365.(Zou G H, Feng S Y.Generalized ratio estimation, generalized difference estimation and their advantages.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 1998, 18(3):359-365.)
[26] Robert McCaa,胡桂华,廖金盆.人口普查内容误差估计.系统科学与数学, 2019, 39(11):1870-1884.(Robert McCaa, Hu G H, Liao J P.Evaluation of census content error.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2019, 39(11):1870-1884.)
[27] 胡桂华,漆莉,迟璐婕.人口普查中遗漏人口数的估计.数量经济技术经济研究, 2022, 39(1):132-153.(Hu G H, Qi L, Chi L J.Estimation of omission population in census.Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics, 2022, 39(1):132-153.)
[28] 胡桂华,武洁,安军.人口普查中多报人口数的估计.中国人口科学, 2016,(1):41-52.(Hu G H, Wu J, An J.Estimates of the number of people overstated in the census.Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2016,(1):41-52.)
[29] 迟璐婕,胡桂华.人口数目估计的多来源方法.徐州工程学院学报, 2021, 36(2):84-92.(Chi L J, Hu G H.A multi-source approach to population estimation.Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology, 2021, 36(2):84-92.)
[30] 胡桂华,孙晓宇,康颖,等.人口抽样调查方案设计研究.徐州工程学院学报, 2017, 32(4):24-29.(Hu G H, Sun X Y, Kang Y, et al.Research on the design of population sampling survey program.Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology, 2017, 32(4):24-29.)
[1] 胡桂华, 叶宝红, 漆莉. 基于双系统估计量的人口普查净误差估计[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(3): 676-696.
[2] 金勇进, 刘晓宇. 大数据背景下的抽样调查[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(1): 2-16.
[3] 杨昊宇, 秦祎辰, 李扬. 问卷分割设计的成组序贯子问卷分配法[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(1): 17-34.
[4] 石峻驿. 大数据背景下平台类企业开展抽样调查的应用研究[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(1): 100-108.
[5] 张璇, 赵静, 丁文兴. 大数据背景下产品质量抽样调查的样本量设计[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2022, 42(1): 133-140.
[6] Robert McCaa,胡桂华,廖金盆. 人口普查内容误差评估[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2019, 39(11): 1870-1884.
[7] 邹国华;冯士雍. 超总体模型下有限总体的估计[J]. 系统科学与数学, 2007, 27(1): 27-38.
[8] 冯士雍. 系统抽样时方差估计量的比较──一种新的比较准则[J]. 系统科学与数学, 1998, 18(1): 47-057.
阅读次数
全文


摘要