Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Review and Prospect on the Medium and Long-Term Forecasting of Grain Demand

LIU Xiuli1,2,3, XIANG Xin1,3, QIN Minghui1,3, DOU Yuxing1,3   

  1. 1. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    2. Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
  • Received:2021-08-09 Revised:2022-01-08 Online:2022-06-25 Published:2022-07-29

LIU Xiuli, XIANG Xin, QIN Minghui, DOU Yuxing. A Review and Prospect on the Medium and Long-Term Forecasting of Grain Demand[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(6): 1490-1502.

This paper first discusses the strategic and scientific significance of forecasting medium- and long-term grain demand. Then it summarizes the current status of domestic and foreign research from four aspects, including the characteristics and trends of grain consumption in China, the main impacting factors of grain consumption, the forecasting methods for the total grain demand, and categorical grain demand. Then the paper analyzes the reasons that lead to the apparent differences among the existing prediction results and unsatisfied forecasting accuracy. First, it is difficult to grasp the changing patterns of residents' dietary structure in the medium and long term in different regions with various income levels. And the highly aggregated grain (food) classifications cover up the critical trends of the changing dietary structure of residents. These affected the prediction accuracy. Second, the main impacting factors of grain demand were not comprehensively considered and quantitatively analyzed in the models, such as the age and gender structure of the population, dietary structure, income level, food production transition, food waste, etc. Third, the differences in designed income level, price elasticity, the conversion rate from feed grains to animal foods, food waste rate at the consumption stage, and the neglect or simple estimation of residents' eating out had caused significant differences in prediction results. Finally, this paper puts forward the following outlook on medium and long-term grain demand forecasting research. 1) Some interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral frameworks should be established. More attention should be paid to new trends, impacting factors of grain demand, and integrating key factors of interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral frameworks. 2) Emphasis should be placed on combining text mining, machine learning, and other data processing methods for statistics and calibration of relevant data, and giving full play to the role of multisource data in forecasting. 3) Based on the forecasting model for grain demand, we should simulate the impact of changes in population policies, grain prices, taxation and subsidy policies, etc. on medium- and long-term grain demand and grain security to provide a policy basis for formulating appropriate medium- and long-term grain supply plans.

CLC Number: 

[1] Li J, Li Z.Physical limitations and challenges to grain security in China.Food Security, 2014, 6(2):159-167.
[2] 陈锡康,杨翠红,刘秀丽.全国及区域粮食产量预测.科技成果管理与研究, 2016, 7:63-65.(Chen X K, Yang C H, Liu X L.National and regional grain output forecast.Management and Research on Scientific&Technological Achievements, 2016, 7:63-65.)
[3] Ge J, Polhill J G, Macdiarmid J I, et al.Food and nutrition security under global trade:A relation-driven agent-based global trade model.Royal Society Open Science, 2020, 8(1):201587.
[4] Hammond R A, Dubé L.A systems science perspective and transdisciplinary models for food and nutrition security.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012, 109(31):12356-12363.
[5] 苑颖,宋金杰,杨春河,等.平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测.中国农业资源与区划, 2017, 38(12):119-123.(Yuan Y, Song J J, Yang C H, et al.Balanced diets food from the angle of demand forecasting.Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2017, 38(12):119-123.)
[6] 唐华俊.中国居民合理膳食模式下的粮食供需平衡分析.农业经济问题, 2012, 33(9):4-11.(Tang H J.Study on food supply and demand balance based on Chinese rational dietary pattern.Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2012, 33(9):4-11.)
[7] 张玉梅,李志强,李哲敏,等.基于CEMM模型的中国粮食及其主要品种的需求预测.中国食物与营养, 2012, 18(2):40-45.(Zhang Y M, Li Z Q, Li Z M, et al.China grains demand forecast analysis based on China economy-wide multi-market model.Food and Nutrition in China, 2012, 18(2):40-45.)
[8] Gouel C, Guimbard H.Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand.American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2019, 101(2):383-403.
[9] Balaji P B V, Dakshayini M.An effective multiple linear regression-based forecasting model for demand-based constructive farming.International Journal of Web-Based Learning and Teaching Technologies, 2020, 15(2):1-18.
[10] Flies E J, Brook B W, Blomqvist L, et al.Forecasting future global food demand:A systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity.Environment International, 2018, 120:93-103.
[11] 肖玉,成升魁,谢高地,等.我国主要粮食品种供给与消费平衡分析.自然资源学报,2017, 32(6):927-936.(Xiao Y, Cheng S K, Xie G D, et al.The balance between supply and consumption of the main types of grain in China.Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(6):927-936.)
[12] Tian X, Yu X H.The demand for nutrients in China.Frontiers of Economics in China, 2013, 8(2):186-206.
[13] 程广燕,刘珊珊,杨祯妮,等.中国肉类消费特征及2020年预测分析.中国农村经济, 2015,(2):76-82.(Cheng G Y, Liu S S, Yang Z N, et al.China's meat consumption characteristics and forecast analysis in 2020.Chinese Rural Economy, 2015,(2):76-82.)
[14] 韩丽艳.居民膳食结构变化视角下的粮食安全问题研究.农村经济与科技, 2020, 31(1):26-27.(Han L Y.Research on food security issues from the perspective of residents'dietary structure changes.Rural Economy and Science-Technology, 2020, 31(1):26-27.)
[15] 琚腊红,于冬梅,房红芸,等.1992-2012年中国居民膳食能量、蛋白质、脂肪的食物来源构成及变化趋势.卫生研究, 2018, 47(5):689-694.(Ju L H, Yu D M, Fang H Y, et al.Trends and food sources composition of energy, protein and fat in Chinese residents, 1992-2012.Journal of Hygiene Research, 2018, 47(5):689-694.)
[16] 琚腊红,于冬梅,房红芸,等.2010-12年中国居民膳食结构状况.中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(10):61-64.(Ju L H, Yu D M, Fang H Y, et al.Dietary patterns among Chinese residents, 2010-2012.Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(10):61-64.)
[17] 杨志海,刘灵芝,王雅鹏.城乡居民肉类消费及其结构演化的差异,原因与趋势.中国食物与营养, 2018, 24(1):33-37.(Yang Z H, Liu L Z, Wang Y P.The differences, causes and trends of meat consumption and its structure evolution between urban and rural residents.Food and Nutrition in China, 2018, 24(1):33-37.)
[18] 卢艳平,肖海峰.我国居民肉类消费特征及趋势判断——基于双对数线性支出模型和LA/AIDS模型.中国农业大学学报, 2020, 25(1):180-190.(Lu Y P, Xiao H F.Chinese residents'meat consumption characteristics and trend judgment:Based on the double-log linear expenditure model and LA/AIDS model.Journal of China Agricultural University, 2020, 25(1):180-190.)
[19] 杨洋,邸信,吕晓华.我国居民膳食变迁与慢性病问题——基于宏观数据的分析.中国社会医学杂志, 2016, 33(2):128-130.(Yang Y, Di X, Lü X H.Study on diet changes and population health in China:Based on analysis of macro data.Chinese Journal of Social Medicine, 2016, 33(2):128-130.)
[20] 刘晓磊,田青,阎东东,等.中国城乡居民饮食结构差异分析——基于营养级视角.营养学报, 2016, 38(4):332-336.(Liu X L, Tian Q, Yan D D, et al.Analysis of the differences in dietary structure based on human trophic levels between Chinese urban and rural residents.Acta Nutrimenta Sinica, 2016, 38(4):332-336.)
[21] 郭春雷,苏畅,王志宏,等.2015年中国十五省(区、市)18-64岁居民膳食蛋白质摄入状况.营养学报, 2018, 40(5):428-433.(Guo C L, Su C, Wang Z H, et al.Dietary protein intake of adults aged 18-64 in 15 provinces of China in 2015.Acta Nutrimenta Sinica, 2018, 40(5):428-433.)
[22] 靳京.中国居民食物消费结构变化特点及其国际比较.科学与现代化, 2018, 4:78-85.(Jin J.The characteristics of food consumption structure in China and its international comparison.Science and Modernization, 2018, 4:78-85.)
[23] 刘庆,刘秀丽.生育政策调整背景下2018-2100年中国人口规模与结构预测研究.数学的实践与认识, 2018, 48(8):180-188.(Liu Q, Liu X L.Forecasting on China's population size and structure during 2018-2100 with the background of family planning policy adjustment.Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2018, 48(8):180-188.)
[24] 吴乐.中国粮食需求中长期趋势研究.博士论文.华中农业大学,武汉, 2011.(Wu L.Study on long-term trends in China's grain demand.Phd Thesis.Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 2011.)
[25] 龚波,尹风雨.人口城镇化对中国粮食消费的影响测度.财经理论与实践, 2018, 39(5):134-140.(Gong B, Yin F Y.Measurement of the impact of urbanization on China's grain consumption.The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics, 2018, 39(5):134-140.)
[26] 韩啸,齐皓天,王兴华.收入对城镇居民食物消费模式影响研究——基于两阶段EASI模型估计.北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版), 2019, 32(2):92-98.(Han X, Qi H T, Wang X H.Impact of income increases of urban residents'on food consumption patterns:Based on two-phase EASI model.Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (Social Sciences Edition), 2019, 32(2):92-98.)
[27] 胡小平,郭晓慧.2020年中国粮食需求结构分析及预测——基于营养标准的视角.中国农村经济, 2010,(6):4-15.(Hu X P, Guo X H.Analysis and forecast of China's food demand structure in 2020-Based on the perspective of nutrition standards.Chinese Rural Economy, 2010,(6):4-15.)
[28] 贾伟,秦富.我国粮食需求预测.中国食物与营养, 2013, 19(11):40-44.(Jia W, Qin F.China's grain demand forecast.Food and Nutrition in China, 2013, 19(11):40-44.)
[29] 邓婷鹤,聂凤英,李辉尚.城乡老人食物消费变化及未来消费需求研究.当代经济管理, 2018, 40(10):1-7.(Deng T H, Nie F Y, Li H S.The changes and the future demand of the elderly food consumption in urban and rural China.Contemporary Economy&Management, 2018, 40(10):1-7.)
[30] 向晶,钟甫宁.人口结构变动对未来粮食需求的影响:2010-2050.中国人口资源与环境, 2013, 23(6):117-121.(Xiang J, Zhong F N.Impact of demographic transition on food demand in China:2010-2050.China Population, Resources and Environment, 2013, 23(6):117-121.)
[31] 刘合光,陈珏颖.人口结构变化对我国粮食需求的影响与对策.黑龙江粮食, 2016,(8):33-34.(Liu H G, Chen J Y.The influence of population structure change on grain demand in China and its countermeasures.Heilongjiang Grain, 2016,(8):33-34.)
[32] Abassi M M, Sassi S, EI Ati J, et al.Gender inequalities in diet quality and their socioeconomic patterning in a nutrition transition context in the Middle East and North Africa:A cross-sectional study in Tunisia.Nutrition Journal, 2019, 18(1):1-15.
[33] Bennett E, Peters S A E, Woodward M.Sex differences in macronutrient intake and adherence to dietary recommendations:Findings from the UK Biobank.BMJ, 2018, 8(4):e020017.
[34] 秦中春.中国未来十年农产品消费增长预测.农业工程技术(农产品加工业), 2013,(7):40-43.(Qin Z C.China's agricultural product consumption growth forecast in the next ten years.Agriculture Engineering Technology (Agricultural Product Processing Industry), 2013,(7):40-43.)
[35] Chen Y Y, Lu C H.Future grain consumption trends and implications on grain security in China.Sustainability, 2019, 11(19):51-65.
[36] 李隆玲,武拉平.乡村人口变迁对我国粮食安全的影响.中国农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 37(1):80-91.(Li L L, Wu L P.The impact of rural population changes on food security in China.Journal of China Agricultural University (Social Sciences), 2020, 37(1):80-91.)
[37] Drewnowski A.Nutrition transition and global dietary trends.Nutrition (Burbank, Los Angeles County, Calif.), 2000, 16(7-8):486-487.
[38] Vecchia C L, Majem L S.Evaluating trends in global dietary patterns.The Lancet Global Health, 2015, 3(3):114-115.
[39] Imamura F, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, et al.Dietary quality among men and women in 187 countries in 1990 and 2010.Lancet Global Health, 2015, 3(3):132-142.
[40] Godfray H C J, Beddington J R, Crute I R, et al.Food security:The challenge of feeding 9 billion people.Science, 2010, 327(5967):812-818.
[41] Valin H, Sands R D, Van der Mensbrugghe D, et al.The future of food demand:Understanding differences in global economic models.Agricultural Economics, 2014, 45(1):51-67.
[42] 罗其友,米健,高明杰.中国粮食中长期消费需求预测研究.中国农业资源与区划, 2014, 35(5):1-7.(Luo Q Y, Mi J, Gao M J.Research on forecasting for long-term grain consumption demands in China.Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2014, 35(5):1-7.)
[43] Guo S T, Huang P M, Yu J B, et al.China's Grain Demand and Supply, 2000-2030.Beijing:China Agricultural Press, 2001.
[44] Yu J.Study on Rationalization of China's Food Structure.Beijing:Research Institute of Aerospace Ministry, 1991.
[45] Gao R.Symposium of China's Fishery Economy.Beijing:China Agricultural Press, 1990.
[46] 刘燕华,杨勤业.西藏自治区的土地、粮食和人口.自然资源学报, 1991, 6(2):127-136.(Liu Y H, Yang Q Y.Land, food and population in the Tibet Autonomous Region.Journal of Natural Resources, 1991, 6(2):127-136.)
[47] Liu X L, Chen X K, Wang S Y.The comparative study on changes of dietary structure among residents in mainland China and other regions.Basic&Clinical Pharmacology&Toxicology, 2019, 124(S3):378-379.
[48] 封志明,史登峰.近20年来中国食物消费变化与膳食营养状况评价.资源科学, 2006,(1):2-8.(Feng Z M, Shi D F.Chinese food consumption and nourishment in the latest 20 years.Resources Science, 2006,(1):2-8.)
[49] 于冬梅.2002-2012年中国居民能量营养素摄入状况及变化趋势.卫生研究, 2016, 45(4):527-533.(Yu D M.Trends of energy and nutrients intake among Chinese population in 2002-2012.Journal of Hygiene Research, 2016, 45(4):527-533.)
[50] 赵雪雁,王伟军,万文玉.中国居民健康水平的区域差异:2003-2013.地理学报, 2017, 72(4):685-698.(Zhao X Y, Wang W J, Wan W Y.Regional inequalities of residents'health level in China:2003-2013.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(4):685-698.)
[51] Marques-Vidal P, Rousi E, Paccaud F, et al.Dietary intake according to gender and education:A twenty-year trend in a Swiss adult population.Nutrients, 2015, 7(11):9558-9572.
[52] 唐华俊,李哲敏.基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究.中国农业科学, 2012, 45(11):2315-2327.(Tang H J, Li Z M.Study on per capita grain demand based on Chinese reasonable dietary pattern.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(11):2315-2327.)
[53] 刘庆,刘秀丽,汪寿阳.基于合理膳食结构的2020-2050年我国食物用粮需求测算.系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(3):615-622.(Liu Q, Liu X L, Wang S Y.Estimating China's food grains demand from 2020 to 2050 based on reasonable dietary pattern.Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice, 2018, 38(3):615-622.)
[54] 许世卫.中国食物消费与浪费分析.中国食物与营养, 2005,(11):4-8.(Xu S W.Analysis on food consumption and waste of China.Food and Nutrition in China, 2005,(11):4-8.)
[55] 胡越,周应恒,韩一军,等.减少食物浪费的资源及经济效应分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 2013,(12):150-155.(Hu Y, Zhou Y H, Han Y J, et al.Resources and economic effects analysis of reducing food waste.China Population Resources and Environment, 2013,(12):150-155.)
[56] Liu J, Lundqvist J, Weinberg J, et al.Food losses and waste in China and their implication for water and land.Environmental Science&Technology, 2013, 47(18):10137-10144.
[57] 成升魁,高利伟,徐增让,等.对中国餐饮食物浪费及其资源环境效应的思考.中国软科学, 2012,(7):106-114.(Cheng S K, Gao L W, Xu Z R, et al.Food waste in catering industry and its impacts on resources and environment in China.China Soft Science, 2012,(7):106-114.)
[58] Wang L, Liu G, Liu X, et al.The weight of unfinished plate:A survey based characterization of restaurant food waste in Chinese cities.Waste Management, 2017, 66:3-12.
[59] Song G, Li M, Semakula H M, et al.Food consumption and waste and the embedded carbon, water and ecological footprints of households in China.Science of the Total Environment, 2015, 529:191-197.
[60] 江金启, Yu T E,黄琬真,等.中国家庭食物浪费的规模估算及决定因素分析.农业技术经济, 2018,(9):88-99.(Jiang J Q, Yu T E, Huang W Z, et al.Home food waste in China and the associated determinants.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018,(9):88-99.)
[61] 马冠生,崔朝辉,胡小琪,等.中国居民食物消费和就餐行为分析.中国食物与营养, 2006,(12):4-8.(Ma G S, Cui Z H, Hu X Q, et al.Analysis of food consumption and dining behavior of Chinese residents.Food and Nutrition in China, 2006,(12):4-8.)
[62] 李辉尚,许世卫,孔繁涛,等.中国城镇居民食物消费变迁特征分析.中国食物与营养, 2015, 21(5):40-45.(Li H S, Xu S W, Kong F T, et al.Changing characteristics of food consumption of urban residents in China.Food and Nutrition in China, 2015, 21(5):40-45.)
[63] 孙香玉.在外就餐与食品消费结构关系研究——基于南京城镇居民的调查.首都经济贸易大学学报, 2010, 12(4):72-79.(Sun X Y.Food-away-from-home and the food consumption structure:A case study of consumption behavior of urban residents in Nanjing.Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business, 2010, 12(4):72-79.)
[64] Zhou Z Y, Tian W M, Malcolm B.Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China.Agricultural Economics, 2008, 39(1):111-122.
[65] 程杰,杨舸,向晶.全面二孩政策对中国中长期粮食安全形势的影响.农业经济问题, 2017, 38(12):8-16, 110.(Cheng J, Yang K, Xiang J.The impact of the universal two-child policy on China's medium and long-term food security.Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2017, 38(12):8-16, 110.)
[66] Liu X L, Hewings G, Dou Y X, et al.Forecasting China's food grain demand 2021-2050 with attention to balanced dietary and fertility policies.Research Square, Posted 01 Jul, 2021, DOI:10.21203/
[67] 刘冬竹,李喜贵,王辽卫,等.中长期我国主要粮食品种供需趋势预测.中国粮食经济, 2021, 9.(Liu D Z, Li X G, Wang L W, et al.Forecasting the trend of supply and demand of main grain varieties in China.China Grain Economy, 2021, 9.)
[68] 龙方.中国未来粮食供求趋势预测.乡镇经济, 2008, 6:91-94.(Long F.China's future grain supply and demand trend forecast.Rural Economy, 2008, 6:91-94.)
[69] 姜风,孙瑾.对当前我国粮食需求的中长期预测方法研究.经济与管理研究, 2007, 9:46-50.(Jiang F, Sun J.Research on medium and long-term forecasting method of current grain demand in China.Research on Economics and Management, 2007, 9:46-50.)
[70] 辛良杰,王佳月,王立新.基于居民膳食结构演变的中国粮食需求量研究.资源科学, 2015, 37(7):1347-1356.(Xin L J, Wang J Y, Wang L X.Prospect of per capita grain demand driven by dietary structure change in China.Resources Science, 2015, 37(7):1347-1356.)
[71] 曹历娟,洪伟.世界粮食危机背景下我国的粮食安全问题.南京农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2009, 9(2):32-37.(Cao L J, Hong W.China's food security under the background of the world food crisis.Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2009, 9(2):32-37.)
[72] 陈玲玲,林振山,郭杰,等.基于EMD的中国粮食安全保障研究.中国农业科学, 2009, 42(1):180-188.(Chen L L, Lin Z S, Guo J, et al.Research on Chinese future grain security based on the method of EMD.Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2009, 42(1):180-188.)
[73] 程国强,陈良彪.中国粮食需求的长期趋势.中国农村观察, 1998,(3):1-5.(Cheng G Q, Chen L B.Long-term trends in China's food demand.China Rural Survey, 1998,(3):1-5.)
[74] 封志明.中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障.人口研究, 2007, 31(2):15-29.(Feng Z M.Food security and arable land security for future population development in China.Population Research, 2007, 31(2):15-29.)
[75] 贺一梅,杨子生.基于粮食安全的区域人均粮食需求量分析.经济理论研究, 2008,(7):6-8.(He Y M, Yang Z S.Analysis of regional per capita food demand based on food security.China Circulation Economy, 2008,(7):6-8.)
[76] 马永欢,牛文元.基于粮食安全的中国粮食需求预测与耕地资源配置研究.中国软科学, 2009,(3):11-16.(Ma Y H, Niu W Y.Forecasting on grain demand and availability of cultivated land resources based on grain safety in China.China Soft Science, 2009,(3):11-16.)
[77] 黄季,杨军,仇焕广.新时期国家粮食安全战略和政策的思考.农业经济问题, 2012,(3):4-8.(Huang J K, Yang J, Qiu H G.Reflections on the strategy and policy of national food security in the new period.Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2012,(3):4-8.)
[78] 李志强,吴建寨,王东杰.我国粮食消费变化特征及未来需求预测.中国食物与营养, 2012, 18(3):38-42.(Li Z Q, Wu J Z, Wang D J.Change analysis and demand forecast of grain consumption in China.Food and Nutrition in China, 2012, 18(3):38-42.)
[79] 张小瑜.未来我国粮食供需形势预测分析.农业展望, 2012, 8(3):55-59.(Zhang X Y.Forecast and analysis of future grain supply and demand situation in China.Agricultural Outlook, 2012, 8(3):55-59.)
[1] LI Li, LU Yanrong. Preview Control for Discrete-Time Polytopic Time-Varying Systems with Input Saturation [J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(6): 1438-1453.
[2] LI Li, LIAO Yonglong, MENG Xiaohua. L2-L Preview Control for Discrete-Time Periodic Systems [J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, 42(5): 1113-1128.
[3] JIA Xiaowei, LI Meng,JIA Zhongwei. THINKING ABOUT ETHICS OF INVESTIGATION ON ORAL IMAGING DATA UNDER HEALTH SYSTEM ENGINEERING [J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2016, 36(2): 219-.
Full text