### Research on Reserve and Distribution Problem of Emergency Medical Supplies

LI Zhenping1,2, ZHANG Yuwei2, TIAN Xin3,4, FANG Yong5

1. 1. School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149;
2. School of Management Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070;
3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;
4. Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100190;
5. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
• Received:2021-06-03 Revised:2021-08-12 Published:2022-03-16

LI Zhenping, ZHANG Yuwei, TIAN Xin, FANG Yong. Research on Reserve and Distribution Problem of Emergency Medical Supplies[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2021, 41(12): 3422-3445.

The optimal medical material reserve and distribution strategy can effectively reduce the loss caused by the major public health emergency. Based on the suddenness of major public health events and the stochastic demand for medical supplies after an event occurred, the reserve and distribution strategy of medical supplies for major public health emergencies is investigated. The reserve quantity of medical supplies is determined before major public health emergencies occur; and the optimal distribution plans are determined after the event occurs. A two-stage stochastic programming model is formulated to minimized the sum of reserve costs (including purchasing cost and inventory holding cost) of medical material before the public health emergencies occurred and the expected loss after the occurrence of the event (including transportation expenses and shortage loss). The model is solved by the Gurobi solver. By conducting simulations on different scale examples and comparing with the classical expected value model, the effectiveness of stochastic programming method is verified. By conducting sensitivity analysis on parameters of unit reserve cost and unit shortage cost respectively, the optimal reserve strategies of different type of medical supplies are proposed. The simulation experiment is carried out based on the real data of a city and the medical protective clothing as an example, by comparing the optimal reserve and distribution scheme obtained by two-stage stochastic programming method and its actual reserve quantity determined by the requirements of provincial health emergency basic material reserve list, we find that the sum of reserve cost and the expected total loss of our optimal solution will reduce by 34%. The satisfaction rate for the demand under the serious scenario will increase from 5.26% to 75.43%, and the sum of reserve cost and the actual loss will reduce by 35.8%. The medical supplies reserve and emergency distribution scheme determined by our method can greatly reduce the sum of reserve cost and the expected total loss, improve the expected demand satisfaction rate after major public health emergencies, and improve the emergency rescue ability and rapid response level.

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